Good morning. As regular readers will know, on a Monday morning we post the weekly economic data that could move exchange rates. This week’s economic data releases are listed below, along with how we think it could affect exchange rates. We also offer a free consultation to clients that want to know how a particular currency pair could fare. Contact us today to discuss your requirements.
In addition to the below data, Brexit will also have an impact on the Pound. The Supreme Court will rule today or tomorrow on the legality of suspending parliament, which is probably going to be the main Brexit news of the week.
This week’s economic data releases
Monday 23rd September
Apart from possible Brexit news from the Supreme court, there’s nothing due from the UK. GBPEUR rates will therefore be influenced by data from the Eurozone. This included some negative EU inflation numbers earlier. Of more importance will be speeches by the outgoing European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. Hints of further EU stimulus could weaken the Euro, helping the Pound/Euro rate.
Elsewhere, we have Inflation and central bank speeches from the USA. I think this will be overshadowed by geopolitical events with rising tensions in the Gulf. These tensions could decrease risk appetite, strengthening the USD due to its safe haven status.
Tuesday 24th September
UK Public Sector net borrowing figures are releases today. It’s unlikely to affect Sterling a great deal. In the absence of data from Europe, Brexit will be the main driver for GBP/EUR rates. GBP/NZD rates could be affected by the latest trade balance data from New Zealand. house price and Consumer confidence from the USA comes at lunchtime, which might impact GBP/USD rates.
Wednesday 25th September
The most important data of the day is the interest rate decision from New Zealand. We expect rates to be left low at 1%. Globally, many countries are starting to lower rates so there’s an outside chance of a cut. If so, expect the Kiwi Dollar to weaken, pushing up GBP/NZD rates. Minor UK mortgage data is unlikely to affect Sterling. The USA releases Home Sales, but again this is a relatively minor release so I don’t expect much movement in cable.
Thursday 26h September
Another quiet day for UK data with nothing on the calendar. An EU economic bulletin is the only Eurozone data. Focus today will be from the raft of data from the United States. GDP numbers are expected at 2%. Anything higher will move GBP/USD down, a lower number will push GBP/USD up. We also see Jobless numbers, home sales, and Trade Balance numbers, all of which will indicate how the US economy is doing.
Friday 26th September
We end the week with UK House prices and a speech by one of the members of the Bank of England (BoE) rate setters. Eurozone data is a mix of sentiment and confidence measures. This will be a good barometer of how business and consumers see the Eurozone economy. The USA has measures of Spending and durable goods orders, which could move GBP/USD.
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