Currency Forecasts : economic data releases – Good morning. As usual for a Monday morning, we will list the data releases for the week ahead that could affect major currencies such as GBP, EUR, USD, AUD, NZD, CAD. Of course, for the Pound all focus is on what will happen with Brexit, and this is causing significant weakness for Sterling. If you need to convert currency at the best rates, contact us today for a free quote.
Currency Forecasts : economic data releases
Monday 5th August 2019
UK Services data is released today at 09:30am. It’s an important reading as services comprise almost 80% of the UK economy. We expect a reading of 50.2. Anything above 50 indicates growth. Elsewhere, we’ve also had German Services data which was worse than expected, but it hasn’t weakened the Euro. The USA has services and manufacturing data at lunchtime that could move the GBP/USD rate. New Zealand will have its latest jobs numbers at 11:45pm so this could affect GBP/NZD rates tomorrow.
Tuesday 6th August 2019
On Monday night Australia had its interest rate decision. We don’t expect any move, but any hints about stimulus in their statement could weaken the Aussie Dollar. Australia’s economy is closely linked to China, as they export most of their raw materials there like Iron ore. As china slows, so does the Australian Economy, so we could see some AUD weakness. There is nothing of note for Sterling.
Wednesday 7th August 2019
GBP/NZD could well be in focus as on Monday night the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates. If they have it should weaken the Kiwi Dollar and make it cheaper to buy. There is also a press conference and policy statement that could indicate future policy. Generally lower interest rates will weaken a currency, while higher interest rates will strengthen it, due to the higher return on offer. The only British data today is Halifax House prices at 08:30am, but it’s a minor release so I don’t expect it to move the Pound much.
Thursday 8th August 2019
There’s nothing of note from the UK today. The only EU release is an economic bulletin. This could hint at Eurozone stimulus and weaken the Euro, pushing up GBP/EUR rates. Elsewhere, the USA has its latest jobless numbers. Australia’s RBA governor Lowe also makes a speech that could have an impact on GBP/AUD rates.
Friday 9th August 2019
The most important day this week for the Pound. We have the following data: Gross Domestic Product, expected at 0.0%, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, Business Investment Numbers, Trade Balance Data, A further GDP Estimate from the NIESR, expected at -0.1%.
As you can see, there’s much for the markets to chew on. The GDP numbers are quite important, because of they come in as negative it will show the UK economy is actually starting to shrink. This would be a further blow to the Pound which is having a torrid time of late.
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