Good morning. Sterling remains largely unchanged from towards the end of last week. The market is flat because most investors are waiting to see what will happen with Brexit. As usual for a Monday, I’ve outlined the main economic data releases for the week ahead and how they could affect various Sterling currency pairs. If you are looking for the best exchange rates, contact us for a free quote.
Economic Data Releases for the week ahead
Monday 15th July
There are no releases of note from the UK or Eurozone today, so expect a rather flat day for GBPEUR. The US has a speech by a FED member that could cause some movement for the US Dollar. The main news today though comes from New Zealand in the form of the latest CPI inflation numbers. These can impact future interest rate movements for New Zealand and so can cause volatility in the GBP/NZD rate.
Tuesday 16th July
The UK releases its latest jobs data today, including the Unemployment rate and average earnings. We expect the numbers to remain very strong, with earnings continuing to rise and unemployment to remain at record lows. If so, the Pound could receive some much needed support. A Speech by the Bank of England BoE Governor could scupper any significant gains for the Pound if he is pessimistic in his assessment of the UK economy.
Europe sees Trade Balance data and a measure of German economic sentiment. There are fears Germany is heading towards recession, so again this could help the GBP/EUR rate rise should the single currency weaken. The USA has a raft of data in the afternoon including Retail Sales, Import and Export numbers, Industrial Production and speeches by various FED members. These could provide an insight as to when the US could cut interest rates, and move the GBP/USD rate higher.
Wednesday 17th July
Today is all about inflation, with key releases from the Eurozone, Canada and UK. Inflation directly affects interest rate movements, so a low number from Europe could weaken the single currency. Over in the United States, Housing Starts and Building permits will shed light on that sector of their economy.
Thursday 18th July
UK Retail Sales are expected to show a monthly decline today. They are a good overall barometer of how the economy is doing. If confirmed, the Pound could be in for a move lower. Australia and the USA both release various measures of their jobs market, so GBP/AUD and GBP/USD could both be affected today.
Friday 19th July
UK Public Sector net borrowing numbers are released at 09:30am today. We expect the deficit to have reduced, but in the shadow of Brexit, I don’t think it will help Sterling much. Canada releases Retail Sales numbers, but the key data today will be Consumer Sentiment from the USA.
Looking for the best exchange rates?
If you need to get the best rates of exchange, then we can help explain what is moving the market, so that you can make an informed choice on when to fix a rate. We can also provide you with a free no obligation quote. We often show savings of thousands of Pounds for our clients, so to find out how much you could save, get in touch today.