Good morning. The market remains flat, with GBP/EUR stuck in the mid 1.11’s and GBP/USD down in the low $1.25’s. With no Brexit news expected for several weeks, it will be economic data releases that drive the value of Sterling. In today’s post, I’ll outline the main releases to watch out for, and how they could affect exchange rates.
Economic Data Releases for the week ahead
Monday 8th July 2019
We have already had Trade data and Industrial production numbers from Germany, the EU’s largest economy There were a mixed bag and so haven’t moved the Euro much. There’s not much else on the agenda today other than some retail sales numbers at midnight tonight.
Tuesday 9th July 2019
There are no data releases of note from the UK or the Eurozone today, so we’re unlikely to see much movement for Pound/Euro. Over in the USA we have a speech by the FED chair and other US central bankers. If they continue to signal an interest rate cut is on the cards, then it could weaken the USD. This could also strengthen the Euro due to it’s inverse relationship with the USD, and move GBP/EUR lower.
Wednesday 10th July 2019
Today we see the first major data releases for the week from the UK, including: Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Trade balance data and the latest GDP estimate. GDP is forecast for 0.3% so anything lower will weaken Sterling. Over in Canada, we’ll see the latest Monetary Policy report, an interest rate decision and the accompanying statement, so there could be some volatility for GBP/CAD today. Stateside, the latest FOMC minutes could give further hints at an imminent interest rate cut in the United States.
Thursday 11th July 2019
UK data today comes in the form of a financial stability report from the Bank of England. German inflation numbers could also affect Sterling/Euro rates. most focus today however will be in the USA as we will see: Jobless Claims, Inflation numbers, speeches by FED members, and the monthly budget statement.
Friday 12th July 2019
It’s a quiet end to the week, with the only releases on the calendar being EU industrial production, and various inflationary measures from the USA.
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