Ahead of the first May bank holiday weekend the currency markets are relatively quiet with parliament recently just coming back from their Easter break we have seen little Brexit news to cause much of an impact on sterling exchange rates. Of course with the new Brexit deadline set for the 31st October we are expecting significant volatility in the coming months and the current lull may well be the calm before the storm.
For those with a more immediate requirement I have given an overview below of what data to look out for this week and how it could have n impact on GBP exchange rates.
Economic data that could impact exchange rates
Monday 29th April 2019 – today is very quiet day from the pound point of view so movements are set to be dictated by data from the US and Europe, although Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak this morning. In terms of European data this morning has seen the release of Consumer confidence and Industrial confidence figures – little in terms of a surprise from these releases so once again the markets are very stable this morning. This afternoon will be dominated by US data with the main data release being the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index. Not a hugely important data release so today is set to be quiet for both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD.
Tuesday 30th April 2019 – again very quiet for the pound, as it often is towards the end of the month. We have a busy day for Europe with a number of GDP and inflation releases for major economies including France, Spain, Germany and the Euro Zone as a whole. Also look out for the unemployment rate – set to stay at 7.8% so no Euro movement expected. This afternoon will see the release of Canadian GDP along with the accompanying speech from the Bank of Canada’s head Stephen Poloz – any discussion as to future monetary policy could see the Canadian Dollar see some movement this afternoon. Also look out for US consumer confidence data and the unemployment rate this evening from New Zealand.
Wednesday 1st May 2019 – much of Europe is closed for labour day so expect little movement for Euro exchange rates. Today is a little busier for the pound with mortgage approvals and Nationwide House prices. Today will be dominated by US data with the Fed interest rate decision and statement at 19:00 this evening. We are not expecting any movement for interest rates but the accompanying statement and future clues as to monetary policy can cause significant market movement for the US currency – certainly one to watch.
Thursday 2nd May 2019 – today is the busiest day for the pound with the Bank of England quarterly inflation report, interest rate meeting and Governor Mark Carney’s speech. As with the Fed decision last night nothing expected from the decision but movements for the pound will be dominated by any comments, whether negative or positive, from Mark Carney.
Friday 3rd May 2019 – to finish off the week we have Euro Zone inflation data this morning along with UK market services data. This afternoon will again be dominated by US data with the key US jobs release in the form of non-farm payrolls. This is a key barometer for the US economy and can cause some big market movement. The release is scheduled for 13:30.
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