Good morning. Markets are quiet this week. Lots of people are off for Easter, the Brexit can has been kicked down the road again, and parliament are also on their Easter Break. There are still on-going talks between Labour and the Conservative Party, and if there are any developments that look like they could come to an agreement, the Pound could go up in value.
In the absence of any Brexit related developments however, markets do have other events in the coming week to focus on. There are various economic data releases this week that will show us how the British economy is faring despite the uncertainty about leaving the EU. Below, I have outlined the main releases and how they could affect GBP exchange rates. If you need to make a transfer and would like to speak to an expert about which way rates are going, contact us today.
Economic data releases that could affect exchange rates
Monday 15th April 2019 – There is little on the calendar today to move the currency markets. There’s a survey from the Bank of Canada that could affect GBP/CAD rates. Elsewhere the only other item of interest is a speech by one of the Bank of England members that could affect the Pound.
Tuesday 16th April 2019 – A busier day for UK data, with the latest Unemployment and Wage data. This has been impressive of late, with UK unemployment at record lows. We expect levels to remain at 3.9% but if they are lower, the Pound could go up. Wage growth is expected at 3.4%, so again if the actual number differs Sterling could move. Elsewhere we have Economic Sentiment data from Germany and the EU, and Inflation numbers from New Zealand that could move the GBP/NZD pair.
Wednesday 17th April 2019 – The Pound could also move today as we have a raft of inflation numbers from across the world including the UK, Eurozone and Canada. Inflation figures affect interest rate movements, which in turn affect the value of the currency concerned as higher rates equal a higher return for investors. If inflation numbers are above forecast, it often causes the currency concerned to rise in value. The UK release is at 09:30am so we could see some volatility around this time.
Thursday 18th April 2019 – The only UK data of note today are the latest Retail Sales numbers. These are a good barometer of the economy as a whole, and so often moves GBP exchange rates. We expect a slight monthly drop of -0.2%. Elsewhere we have Australian jobs numbers that could move GBPAUD. Across the pond, the USA has some lunchtime data including Retail Sales and Jobless numbers.
Friday 19th April – It’s a long weekend in the UK for the Easter Break, so expect a very quiet currency market. The USA has some minor Housing data but it’s likely to have much of an impact on exchange rates.
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