Following the Christmas and New Year break we head into the first full working week of 2019 with plenty in store for the pound. Of course the most significant date in the diary will be the 21st January, the date that Prime Minister Theresa May will take her Brexit bill to parliament. There are a number of scenarios and outcomes for sterling exchange rates, these were explored by my colleague Alastair in his post last year
One thing that can be certain is there is likely to be some significant market volatility in the coming weeks and for this reason it would be well, should you have a pending transfer to arrange, to get yourself in position to act on the market movement.
Looking shorter time I have outlined the key areas to focus on this week:
Monday 7th – little or no data of note from the UK but look out for European Retail sales figures at 10:00. Figures from Germany this morning were much stronger than forecast and should the data at 10:00 follow suit then the Euro could gain some traction.
Tuesday 8th – again no data of note from the UK but there is a plethora of European data starting with industrial and consumer confidence at 10:00. For the afternoon session look out for US trade balance data at 13:30.
Wednesday 9th – today will be dominated by US data with a number of speeches from key Fed members followed by the Fed minutes at 19:00. In these minutes it will give clues as to what future monetary policy the Fed has in store and this could cause USD fluctuations accordingly. From the UK there will be a speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
Thursday 10th – today is relatively quiet across the board but look out for US initial jobless claims data at 13:30. Again there will be a number of speeches from key Fed members throughout the afternoon, these will be digesting the outcome of the minutes from the night before.
Friday 11th – today is by far the busiest day from the pounds point of view with a number of key UK data releases at 09:30. To start we have industrial and manufacturing data, both expected to show slight improvements from the previous month which may lend support to the pound. We also have UK GDP data, figures forecast at 0.1% and any improvement on this and once again sterling could have a good morning.
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