The sterling slide continues, will it fall further?

Sterling exchange rates have continued to slump bringing the pounds losses to nearly 3% in just under a week. This is a significant move and continues to show how vulnerable the pound is. In the same period the pound has also seen significant losses against other major currencies falling 2% against the US dollar and 2.5% against the Australian Dollar.

These losses highlight how volatile the market is and until we get a clearer picture with regards to Brexit we are likely to see continued volatility for the pound. We now find GBP/EUR back in the 1.12/1.13 range but I do feel the risk to the pound is very much to the downside. The average trade price over the last year sis roughly around the 1.1250 mark, so actually the current levels, for bot buyers and sellers, aren’t actually that bad. In this time the lowest recorded rate was 1.1006  – a rate which I feel could be tested in the coming weeks.

Brexit aside would could impact the pound?

Of course Brexit will continue to dominate the market for the foreseeable and with uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Theresa May’s tenure it is difficult to see anything other than sterling losses in the coming weeks. There will, of course, be other data sets to focus on that could impact the pound and below I have outlined the main releases for the remainder of this week.

Tuesday 20th – Today is light for European data but we have a speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at 10:00. Nothing expected but worth keeping an eye on for any insight as to future monetary policy the central bank may have in store. We will also have the release of the inflation report hearings at 10:00.

Wednesday 21st – At 09:30 we have UK public sector net borrowing figures, this being the only UK release. The rest of the day is dominated with US data the most notable being mortgage applications and initial jobless claims at 13:30

Thursday 22nd – today is a very quiet day with it being thanksgiving in the US although the European Central Bank will release their overview of the financial market, economic and monetary developments through their policy meeting accounts report, this is at 12:30. Following this look out for European consumer confidence at 15:00

Friday 23rd – Today is busy with European data starting with German GDP data at 07:00 followed by Markit Manufacturing and services data at 09:00. There is no data of note from the UK and this afternoon will also see Markit manufacturing and services data but this time from the US.

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