Good morning. Last week the Pound fell further against the Euro, as it became clear that a Brexit deal would not be agreed any time soon. To be honest the GBP/EUR rate probably would have fallen further if it were not for the issues in Italy that has kept the Euro weak. Without this I think Pound/Euro would have fallen even more.
This week we have quite a busy one in terms of data releases. As usual for a Monday, in today’s post I’ll take a look at the week ahead, and outline the events that I think could move exchange rates. To discuss your currency requirements and see what exchange rate we can offer, get in touch today.
What could make the Pound rise or fall this week?
Monday 29th October 2018 – The main even today will be the UK Budget at 4:30pm. Usually it doesn’t have much of an impact on the Pound, but this one could be different. With chancellor Hammond expected to announce an increase in spending and the end of austerity, it could help bolster the Pound. Elsewhere various US inflation numbers could strengthen the USD further pulling GBP/USD lower.
Tuesday 30th October 2018 – There’s nothing much of note from the UK today, however a raft of data from the Eurozone could drive GBP/EUR. The most important will be the EU GDP numbers at 10am, which if good could strengthen the Euro and make it more expensive to buy. There are also Germany inflationary measures and Unemployment that could affect the single currency.
Wednesday 31st October 2018 – UK Consumer confidence numbers are released today that could affect the Pound. Other than that it’s EU data that will move GBP/EUR with CPI inflation numbers along wit the latest Unemployment figures in focus.
Thursday 1st November 2018 – UK manufacturing PMI numbers are released today, but most focus will be on the BoE interest rate decision. Rates will almost certainly be left on hold at 0.75%, but what governor Mark Carney says in the press conference will be closely watched. In addition, it’s ‘Super Thursday’ so we will also see the latest Quarterly Inflation report being released. This can impact future interest rate movements so again, anything that signals when an interest rate rise may happen could affect the Pound.
Friday 2nd November 2018 – A quiet end to the week for the UK and EU, with PMI construction for both the only release likely to affect GBP/EUR. GBP/USD could move at lunchtime when we have the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls; analysts expect 190,000 new jobs to have been created in the USA. However the actual number is usually rather different than the experts predict, so a higher reading would move Pound/Dollar lower, while a lower reading would have t he opposite effect and help boost the rate. GBP/CAD will also be in focus with the latest Canadian Unemployment numbers released at 12:30.
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