What could affect GBP exchange rates this week?

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Good morning. The Pound fell further on Friday following Theresa May’s speech, in which she stated that the EU keep rejecting the UK’s proposals without explaining why and offering an alternative, adding that negotiations were now at an impasse. I have to say that her speech on Friday contained nothing but logic that any sensible person would struggle to disagree with. The result for the Pound was a sell-off, causing GBP exchange rates to fall across the board.

This morning we’ve seen a slight recovery, indicating that the markets are still confident that a deal will be struck by November. At the time of writing, GBP/EUR is at €1.1159 and GBP/USD is at $1.3112.

In the absence of any Brexit announcements this week, it will be economic data releases that cause exchange rates to move up or down. In today’s post I’ll outline the main releases for the week ahead. If you need to make a currency transfer and would like to discuss the currency markets, contact us today. We can provide you with an impartial view on which way rates are moving, and provide you with a free quote to see how much money we could save you on your exchange.

What could move exchange rates this week?

Monday 24th September – There’s nothing of note from the UK today. We have already had some data from Germany that was slightly better than forecast, which is the reason for the slight dup in GBP/EUR rates this morning. There’s nothing much else on the calendar today so barring political/Brexit statements, it could be a quiet day.

Tuesday 25th September – Another quiet day for the UK, with the only interesting thing a speech by one of the Bank of England MPC members. Hints at when interest rates may move again could affect the Pound. From New Zealand we see Import/Export data that could affect GBP/NZD rates.

Wednesday 26th September – Yet again nothing much that I can see which could move GBP/EUR rates. It’s a busy day in the USA however, with Homes Sales, an interest rate decision from the FED, and various speeches by FED members. We also have a rate decision from New Zealand. Any hints from central banks that rates may go up would strengthen the currency concerned, and cause exchange rates to fall.

Thursday 27th September – A speech by BoE member Haldane today is the only likely mover of Sterling. Elsewhere we have an economic bulletin from the EU along with Business climate data. The USA has a raft of data released at lunchtime including GDP numbers, Jobless claims and durable goods orders. We also have a speech by the governor of Canada’s central bank that could move GBPCAD.

Friday 28th September – Probably the most important day for Sterling – first thing markets will be reacting to the latest Consumer Confidence measures. At 09:30am we have the latest growth figures. This could help the Pound rise if the number is 0.4% or higher. We also have inflation measures from the Eurozone and USA. Later in the day, a speech by a BoE member could shed light on whether interest rates will go up again before the end of the year.

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