GBP, USD, EUR and AUD exchange rates forecast

Good morning and I hope you had a nice weekend? As usual for the first update of the week at currencyforecasts we will provide an overview of key data releases this week and how they could impact GBP, USD, EUR and AUD exchange rates this week.

To start the week there is no data of note from the UK, although any developments around Brexit will continue to keep the pound on its toes. For me it is likely the GBP/EUR rate will continue to trade within a relatively tight range, 1.10-12, for the next few weeks until further progress is made with Brexit. Looking at the other currencies and I have provided and overview of key data this week.

Exchange rates week ahead

Monday 17th – This morning Eurozone inflation figures were released. As expected levels remained at 2% and has caused very little impact on euro exchange rates as a result. Euro buyers/sellers should look out for a number of speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) members throughout the course of today. There is no data of note from the US.

Tuesday 18th – Overnight will see the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from its latest interest rate meeting. These minutes will give clues as to what future monetary policy the central bank may have planned for the Australian economy and can cause some big swings for the AUD as a result. The morning session kicks off with a speech from ECB governor Mario Draghi. Again look out for any clues regarding Eurozone monetary policy.

Wednesday 19th – A busier day for the pound with a speech from Bank of England (BofE) chief economist Andrew Haldane at 09:00. To follow this we have retail sales data and inflation figures. Inflation is the key, expected to fall from 2.4% from 2.5% and could put pressure on the pound in the morning session. From Europe we have construction output at 10:00 followed by another speech from Mario Draghi at 14:00. In the US look out for housing starts and building permits at 13:30.

Thursday 20th – Overnight the RBA bulletin will be released and the UK data kicks off with official retails sales figures at 09:30. Mont on month figures are expected to decline from 0.7% to -0.2%. The afternoon session is dominated by the US with initial jobless claims at 13:30 and existing home sales at 15:00. Those looking at the Euro should keep an eye on consumer confidence data at 15:00

Friday 21st – To end the working week we have another busy day. This starts with markit manufacturing data for Europe at 09:00 followed by UK public sector net borrowing at 09:30 and the BofE quarterly bulletin at 13:00. To finish the week look out for US markit manufacturing at 14:45

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