Good morning. In today’s post we’ll take a look at the week ahead at what could move exchange rates. This will include economic data releases and political events that could affect Sterling exchange rates. It’s quite a busy week in terms of scheduled releases from the UK and Eurozone. This, coupled with some important political events could cause significant volatility for the Pound. Let’s take a look at what to look out for…
What could move exchange rates this week?
Monday 11th June 2018 – At 09:30am this morning we’ll see the latest UK industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers. We expect a rise of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. If this numbers are higher or lower than this, then expect the Pound to move accordingly. There isn’t much else of note to watch out for today. ** Update** – the figures came in significantly below forecast at -0.08% and -1.4%, sending the Pound lower against the Euro and other major currencies.
Tuesday 12th June 2018 – Today is an important one for Sterling. At 09:30am we have UK jobs data, including the unemployment rate and the latest confirmation of wage growth. We expect this to show wages grew by 2.9% in the last quarter. If this is confirmed it should be good for Sterling, as it will confirm wages are growing faster than inflation. Also today we have the vote in the commons for the EU withdrawal bill. This is likely to go late into the night. If rebels vote against the government, the political uncertainty this will cause is likely to push the Pound significantly lower.
Wednesday 13th June 2018 – Markets will wake up and be reacting to how Tuesday evening’s vote went, so we’re likely to see significant movement in exchange rates today. To add to the mix will be the latest UK Retail Sales and inflation numbers, so we’re expecting quite choppy day in the markets. We also have the US FED interest rate decision. If they hint at 4 further rate hikes this year, expect the USD to strengthen and pull GBP/USD lower.
Thursday 14th June 2018 – Another important day for Pound/Euro rates. UK Retail Sales are released at 09:30am. Following this at 12:45pm we have the latest ECB interest rate decision and policy statement. This could move the Pound/Euro rate significantly depending on how what they say about future Eurozone stimulus measures. The press conference at 13:30pm is the event most likely to affect the Euro. Any comments that the market take as positive for the EU economy will send GBP/EUR lower, and vice versa.
Friday 15th June 2018 – We end the week with the latest EU inflation numbers at 10am. Inflation can impact future interest rate movements so this is an event that could affect Pound/Euro.
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