Key Brexit Dates: How could this affect GBP/EUR?

Once again sterling has had a relatively quiet week against the Euro. Could this change next week? Below, courtesy of the BBC, you can see an extensive timeline of key dates regarding on-going Brexit negotiations.

With the pound falling yesterday following uncertainty surrounding the Brexit withdrawal vote scheduled for the 12th June, along with reports suggesting David Davis, the Brexit secretary, could resign over plans for a customs “backstop”, we could see some further volatility next week.

Many expect the vote on Tuesday to go through without issue, which in theory should lend some support to the pound. However more political uncertainty is not good for Theresa May’s government, and it was this that caused sterling to fall in value yesterday. We have recovered today, however expect further volatility come Tuesday next week.

Key Brexit dates 2018

  • 5-8 June Article 50 technical negotiations between the UK and the EU in Brussels, focusing on Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland as well as future relationship between the UK and the EU
  • 12 June European Union (Withdrawal) Bill returns to the House of Commons, where MPs will consider Lords amendments
  • 28-29 June EU summit. This was seen as a deadline by which the UK was expected to produce answers on the UK’s customs relationship with the EU and Northern Ireland, but this deadline is now highly unlikely to be met
  • 17-18 October EU summit. If the June summit fails to produce a plan for the UK’s customs relationship with the EU, the issue will have to be dealt with at the October summit. But this was seen as a deadline for an agreement setting out the terms of UK-EU “divorce” – the so-called withdrawal agreement – to allow enough time for the UK Parliament and the European Parliament to ratify it. A political declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU is also expected at this point
  • Late October The Commons and Lords have been promised a vote on the withdrawal treaty – MPs could reject the deal but it’s not clear what would happen in that eventuality. The UK Parliament also needs to pass an implementation bill before Brexit day. The withdrawal agreement will then go to the European Parliament for ratification
    November There is speculation that an emergency EU summit on Brexit might be held in this month, if a withdrawal agreement and a declaration on the future relationship are not reached in October
  • 13-14 December – EU summit. If a deal has not been done by October, this is the fallback option if the two sides still want to reach an agreement

Key Brexit Dates 2019

Ratification of the withdrawal agreement by the UK Parliament and the European Parliament.

  • 21-22 March – The final summit that the UK is expected to attend as a member of the EU
  • 29 March, at 2300 GMT – The UK to leave the EU. A special summit of the 27 other EU countries soon after the UK’s exit is expected, but has not yet been scheduled
  • 23-26 May Elections for the European Parliament in 27 EU countries (the UK will no longer be represented in the parliament)
  • 31 December 2020 If all goes to plan, a transition period will last until midnight on this date

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