In today’s post, I’ll take a look at the week ahead and what data releases could affect Sterling exchange rates. The main currency pairs I’ll be looking at include GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD.
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GBPEUR rates have not fared well recently, dropping from €1.16 to €1.1350 due to the mood towards the Pound souring somewhat. This week, there are several things that could affect the rate. From the EU, we have data that could weaken the single currency and help rates recover. This comprises of German and EU GDP numbers, and I think there is likely to be a slowing of growth from these areas in the last quarter. If this is the case, the Euro would weaken and become cheaper to purchase, as it would mean the ECB maintaining it’s stimulus measures.
We also have UK wage growth data on Tuesday, and there could be a rise in earnings which could also help the Pound. Given the drop for GBP/EUR over the last few weeks, I think that we could see rates recover slightly this week.
There isn’t a huge amount of data coming from across the Pond this week, other than the latest US Retail Sales numbers tomorrow. So GBPUSD is likely to be driven by tomorrow’s UK’s employment figures and wage growth numbers. Pound/Dollar has dropped by nearly 10 cents in the last month, but it now looks like the rate has stabilised. Again as with GBPEUR, I think we’ll see a modest recover in cable this week.
This currency pair has been dropping and dropping in recent weeks, being driven lower by a general weakening of Sterling. This week, the UK’s jobs numbers will be in focus tomorrow. In Canada, we have the latest inflation numbers and employment numbers. If inflation remains strong, then it could strengthen the Canadian Dollar putting further pressure on GBPCAD rates.
In addition to the UK’s jobs numbers this week, we also have Australian employment figures. GBPAUD hasn’t been doing to bad recently, and I think this trend will continue. Markets expect a softening of Aussie earnings numbers this week which could help keep GBP/AUD rates supported.
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