Sterling has had a great start to the week, rising to €1.1570 against the Euro, and $1.43 against the US Dollar. The last time GBPEUR was this high was last June, so the current levels are very attractive.
Will the Pound continue rising? This will largely depend on 2 things. Firstly, if continued progress is made with the on-going Brexit negotiations, and secondly, economic data releases. In today’s post, I’ll outline the data releases for the week ahead that are likely to affect exchange rates. (For a detailed outline of what could move the currency pair you are looking at, make a free enquiry today and get a quote.)
This week’s economic data releases
Monday 16th April – There are no releases of note for the UK or EU today. Over in the USA we have Retail Sales numbers, and speeches by FED members that could affect GBP/USD rates.
Tuesday 17th April – The key UK release today will be the latest employment numbers and wage growth data. Unemployment is at record lows, and this has helped strengthen the Pound. Wages are forecast to have grown by 2.8%, and if this is confirmed then it’s highly likely the Bank of England will raise interest rates in May, so this could help the Pound rise. If however the number is below this, Sterling is likely to weaken slightly.
Wednesday 18th April – Today’s releases are focused on inflation, both in the UK and the Eurozone. UK CPI is forecast to come in at 2.6%. Now that wages are rising faster than inflation, it increases the likelihood of interest rates going up in the UK. If today’s release is more than 2.6%, then it could lend further support to the Pound. The UK release comes at 09:30am, and the EU releases it’s figure at 10am, so watch for movements in the GBPEUR rate at around this time. Elsewhere, Canada announces it’s latest decision on interest rates and a policy report at 3pm.
Thursday 19th April – Today we see the latest UK Retail Sales. This is seen as a good barometer of how the economy is doing, and the forecast is for a monthly drop of -1.7%, largely due to the poor weather keeping consumers at home. If the number is higher or lower than this, the Pound could move accordingly. There is also a speech by one of the Bank of England members at 5.30pm, which will be closely watched for any hints to a May interest rate hike.
Friday 20th April – Another BoE speech today could affect the Pound at 10:30am, but there’s nothing else to watch out for from the UK today. There is a raft of data from Canada including Retail Sales and inflation numbers that could affect GBP/CAD rates. From the EU, a consumer confidence report at 3pm could affect the value of the single currency.