Will the Pound go up or down this week?

Sterling has started the week rather well, pushing higher against the Euro and US Dollar, to €1.14 and $1.4050 respectively. These are good buying levels for both pairs, with the GBP/EUR rate close to an 8 month high, and GBP/USD close to the best we’ve seen since the referendum.

The week ahead could be an interesting one. Firstly, there may well be further developments with Brexit negotiations. Labour have announced their policy would be to remain in the customs union. In reality this means the government could be defeated if Tory rebels join Labours ranks and vote down plans. It also means that if the UK were to remain in a customs union, we would not be free to strike our own trade deals, which would be the main economic benefit of leaving the EU.

Theresa May will also announce the Cabinet’s approach to negotiations, and you can be sure that the EU will respond and remark. How all this plays out in terms of exchange rates largely depends on how the markets react. Anything that they perceive as political uncertainty or anything that could delay EU talks would likely send the Pound lower. If however it looks like the 2 sides are becoming more aligned, then the Pound could move higher, testing 8 month highs of €1.15+.

Alongside potential Brexit developments, will also be the scheduled economic data releases, that often move exchange rates if the numbers differ to what the markets expect. A brief outline of the week’s releases are below.

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This week’s economic data releases

Monday 26th FebA rather quiet day, but this evening we have speeches by the UK and US central banks, and any hints on interest rate policy could affect the Pound or the US Dollar.

Tuesday 27th FebWe have EU industrial Confidence, Consumer Confidence and Services sentiment data today at 10am. Positive news would push GBP/EUR rates lower. 

Wednesday 28th FebThe only UK data today is a measure of consumer confidence. Elsewhere we have German unemployment figures and EU inflation. The USA releases it’s preliminary GDP figures.

Thursday 1st MarchUK Nationwide House prices, Inflation numbers and mortgage approvals are all released at 09:30am and could affect Sterling. EU unemployment is at 10am. US jobless numbers and Inflation figures come in the afternoon.

Friday 2nd MarchToday is important for the Pound, as we have a speech by Theresa May and another one by the Bank of England. Both of these have the potential to caused significant volatility for Sterling. 

For a detailed outline of what could move your currency pair, or to get a free quote, get in touch today for a free no obligation consultation.

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