Sterling overview, what is in store for the pound next week?
On a relatively quiet day and a quiet end to the week for the pound, below I have outlined what data to look out for next week.
Monday also looks as though it will be relatively quiet with the only release of note being the M4 money supply Monday morning at 09:30, for those with an interest in the euro then look out for Euro Zone consumer confidence data at 10:00. This is expected to stay at -1 so in theory will have little impact on exchange rates but it is one to look out for all the same.
On Tuesday there is no data of note but look out for GSK consumer confidence released overnight Monday/early Tuesday.
Heading into Wednesday, again it will be relatively quiet, but look out for Markit Manufacturing figures at 09:30. These are expected to increase slightly from 55.9 to 56.1 and could see a slight level of support for the pound.
Thursday will be the key day for anyone looking at sterling. Firstly we will see the release of PMI construction data at 09:30 before the main release of the day in the form of the Bank of England interest rate decision and accompanying statement. This is one of the most eagerly anticipated meetings in a number of years as it is widely expected the Bank will opt for a rate rise, the first in 10 years.
To finish the week look out for Markit Services PMI at 09:30
What would a rate rise mean for the pound?
Under normal conditions we would expect to see sterling rise, however in this instance we may actually see sterling fall as I believe the market has already heavily priced this in. If they decide to hold, then I would expect to see sterling fall sharply, and if miraculously they hike by 0.5% (its expected they will rise by only 0.25%) then at this point we could see some strength for the pound.
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