Pound/Euro rates rose slightly at the end of last week, after the European Central Bank hinted that they might not look to taper their stimulus measures until the end of the year. This helped weaken the Euro and push GBP/EUR rates back up to around the €1.09 mark. Pound/Dollar rates also rose due to poor US jobs numbers, weakening the USD and making it cheaper to buy.
Both major currency pairs rose, but as I’ve explained above, it’s due to weakness in the EUR and USD rather than any strength in Sterling. In today’s post, we’ll have a look at what could move rates this week.
We’re set for quite an important week that could give Pound/Euro rates direction. On Thursday, we have the ECB rate decision and there may well be hints that the ECB could end its stimulus programme. If so, expect the Euro to gain pushing GBP/EUR lower. On Friday, there is a raft of UK data too that could push the Pound higher or lower if the numbers differ from the expected.
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What could move exchange rates this week?
Below are the main scheduled economic data releases for the week ahead that could affect exchange rates. Of course other factors such as any Brexit developments or geopolitical events could also affect currency prices at any time. For free consultation on what could move the currency pair you’re looking at, contact us today.
Monday 4th September 2017 – For GBP/EUR, today’s main release will be the latest UK PMI Construction numbers. The EU will also have it’s PPI numbers at 10am, along with a measure of investor confidence.
Tuesday 5th September 2017 – GBP/AUD will be in focus as the RBA announces its latest interest rate decision and accompanying policy statement. Sterling could also move today at 11am with the Inflation report that could give hints on when interest rates may go up. In the EU the main release will be Inflation numbers and Retail Sales.
Wednesday 6th September 2017 – There are no UK or EU releases scheduled for today. Focus therefore will be across the pond where we’ll see inflation numbers from the USA, and an interest rate decision and rate statement from Canada, potentially affecting GBP/CAD rates.
Thursday 7th September 2017 – The main UK Release today is House Price data from Halifax. GBP/EUR could also be affected by the EU’s latest GDP numbers, expected at +0.6% on the quarter. Any deviation from this number will affect the value of the Euro. We also have the ECB’s latest interest rate decision. While we expect rates to remain on hold, any clues as to when the ECB will start tapering its QE programme could give the Euro some strength and pull GBPEUR lower. Elsewhere, US jobs numbers will be closely followed at 13:30pm.
Friday 8th September 2017 – A very important day for the Pound, as we have: Inflation data, Industrial and Manufacturing production, Trade Balance figures, and a GDP estimate. Lots then that markets will be looking at for clues as to how the economy is faring. If the numbers are not good, expect the Pound to fall.