The Pound has risen again today (Wednesday) after the Evening Standard announced earlier that a poll they commissioned by Ipsos-Mori showed that 55% of those asked now support the UK remaining in the EU. 37% indicated they want to leave, with the remaining undecided. Look at the chart below, and see the effect this has had on the Pound:
I’ve said for some time now that polls and sentiment towards the EU referendum would be the main driver for exchange rates until the vote is held, and this is illustrated by the fact that recent economic data has been quite poor.
Yesterday’s UK inflation number was 0.3% against an expected 0.5%. This means there is very little chance interest rates in the UK will rise any time soon, and this would usually have weakened Sterling and pulled exchange rates lower, but with several polls now suggesting a ‘Brexit’ is looking less likely, the Pound is recovering some of it’s recent losses. This is because leaving the EU would create lots of uncertainty, and the markets do not like uncertainty. Now it’s looking more likely we will remain, investors are happier to hold Sterling funds, and this is why Sterling has strengthened despite some pretty soft data. However, the cracks that are starting to appear in the UK economy may limit the rally.
Options to consider if you need to convert Pounds to Euros
This spike is great news for euro buyers. With a Brexit looking less likely, it could well be that investors start to pay less attention to polls, and more attention to the fundamental economic figures coming out of the UK, which are less than impressive.
Those that need to buy Euros may want to consider a ‘Stop Loss’ order. This is where you instruct us to covert your GBP to EUR if the rate falls below a pre-agreed level. This protects you from the rate dropping back away and wiping out the gains we’ve seen in recent days. If the rate continues to climb, you can take advantage of subsequent gains, and also amend your stop loss in line with any upward market movements.
If you need to buy Euros, would like to discuss this, or simply get a quote to compare with your bank or existing provider, click here to send me a free enquiry.
Options to consider if you need to convert Euros to Pounds.
You have seen a significant gain in the last 6 months, but if we do stay in the EU, which is looking ever more likely, these current levels will not be available for very long. With only a month to go until the vote, those selling Euros could consider fixing the current rate with a Forward contract. This guarantee’s the rate now for up to 2 years into the future. You lodge 10% of the total to be converted, and the rest any time over the next 2 years, at the agreed level. This removes your exposure to the market and allows you to budget.
If you want to talk about this in more detail, get a quote, or just discuss the currency markets and the potential moves we may see in the coming weeks, then get in with me today for a free consultation
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