Monday 6th October
Good afternoon. The Pound has fallen a little further this morning, dropping to €1.2715 vs the Euro, and against the US Dollar we have seen rates drop below the $1.60 barrier to $1.5977. Exchange rates seem to have stabilised there and so in today’s report I will list economic data releases this week that could have an impact on exchange rate.
What makes exchange rates go up and down?
There are various factors that affect exchange rates, such as economic data, political instability, natural disasters like floods and droughts, and acts of war such as the current conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Only one of these is predictable, and that’s economic data releases. These are forecast well in advance, and so if figures are better than expected, a currency can strengthen. If however numbers are worse than forecast, a currency can fall in value.
Below is an outline of this week’s data that I think could affect the Pound and Sterling exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform, then you can get in touch with me for free by clicking here. I can then give you a free consultation on which way the exchange rate may move in the coming weeks and months. I can also provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker. I can source excellent commercial exchange rates, and even a small improvement could save you thousands.
This week’s economic data releases
Monday 6th October – nothing of great importance on the agenda today. Some German factory order numbers were worse than expected but this had no effect on the value of the Euro. Later this evening we see New Zealand Business confidence numbers that could affect the GBP/NZD rate.
Tuesday 7th October – Today we have some UK Manufacturing numbers, Halifax House Prices, and a Bank of England Credit Survey. The most important release of the day however will be a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate from the NIESR. Elsewhere, the United States sees speeches by FED members. So the Pound and Dollar could both be affected today.
Wednesday 8th October – A quiet day today data wise, and the only interesting releases are from the USA in the form of the FOMC minutes. Any clues on the timing of a US interest rate rise could affect GBP/USD exchange rates.
Thursday 9th October – This is the most important day for the Pound in my opinion, with the latest BoE decision on interest rates. While it’s very likely rates will be left on hold, the statement they make afterwards could hold clues as to when they will start to raise. Any hints of rates going up in the coming months would cause the Pound to rise. If however they indicate a rise is some way off, expect Sterling exchange rates to fall.
We also have a speech by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi today, so it could be quite volatile for Pound/euro rates. It’s also the first day of the G20 meeting, so any surprises there could also affect the currency markets.
Friday 10th October – UK Trade balance figures are the only releases of note for Britain. Elsewhere, Canada has its latest unemployment figures, and we have day 2 of the G20 meeting.
If you would like a quote, or a free chat about exchange rates and what I can do for you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.