GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and next weeks economic data releases

Friday 16th May 2014
Good afternoon. The Pound has steadily recovered this morning, climbing up to €1.2265 against the Euro and $1.68 vs the US Dollar. There hasn’t been any real data of note from the UK, and the gains for Sterling really just reflect the optimism surrounding the UK economy at the moment.

Rates have failed to break through the €1.23 barrier this week however, as the Pound is being kept in check with this week’s news that the Bank of England will only raise interest rates gradually when they eventually decide to start putting them up in 2015.

For this with Pounds to covert, then GBP/EUR is around a 16th month high, and GBP/USD just below a 5 year high – great levels for those needing to buy foreign currency.

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Below is an outline of all next week’s data that I think will affect exchange rates. Have a great weekend.

Alastair Archbold

Next week’s economic data releases that could affect exchange rates

Monday 19th May 2014

It’s a very quiet start to the trading week with no significant economic releases.

Tuesday 20th May 2014

Lots of data from the UK today including various measures of inflation, and the latest Retail Sales numbers. These are a good overall barometer of economic activity, and the number is expected at 2.5%. If it’s higher than the Pound may make some gains.

Wednesday 21st May 2014

Today we have the all-important BoE MPC minutes. These will show what was discussed at the most recent meeting where they left interest rates on hold. If they hint that rates are only going to rise gradually, then Sterling could suffer.

Elsewhere we have the FOMC minutes and a speech by the FED chair Janet Yellen, so GBP/USD cold also be affected today.
Thursday 22nd May 2014

Another important day for Sterling, as we have the latest Mortgage Approval numbers and GDP figures. I expect this to show the economy has grown +0.8% on the quarter.

EU data today comprises manufacturing figures from Germany and the whole EU. Over in the USA we have the latest Jobless Claims, inflation numbers, and Home sales figures.

Friday 23rd May 2014

A quiet end to the week with nothing of note from the UK. Germany, the EU’s largest economy releases its latest GDP figures however, so GBP/EUR could change in value.

We have some Canadian Inflation numbers releases this afternoon, along with the USA’s latest Homes Sales figures.

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