Tuesday 6th May 2014
Good morning. Markets re-open today after the Bank Holiday Break. Currently Sterling/Euro remains around €1.2165 which is close to a 16 month high. Sterling/Dollar has risen further this morning up to $1.6950, a 5 year high.
As usual for the start of the week, today I will run through the main data releases that you should keep an eye on if you’re looking for the best exchange rates.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday 5th May 2014 – UK markets were closed for the May bank holiday, however the market will be reacting this morning to various EU releases from Monday – Investor Confidence, Inflation data and Growth forecasts.
Tuesday 6th May 2014 – All markets are open again this morning, but UK data is fairly light with only some minor inflation numbers. The EU also fires a salvo of inflation figures into the mix, along with the latest retail sales figures so GBP/EUR could well be a little volatile today.
Over in the states we have Trade Balance figures. Lastly New Zealand has unemployment data which may affect GBP/NZD rates.
Wednesday 7th May 2014– A very quiet today with only German Factory orders of note. Investors however will be positioning ahead of tomorrow’s round of central bank decisions – the risk averse amongst you will want to consider taking your positions ahead of Thursday’s data.
Thursday 8th May 2014 – Today we have UK and EU central bank decisions. We think that rates will be left on hold, but watch for the all-important comments that accompany the decision. If the ECB hint at monetary easing it could cause weakness in the Euro. This is the main release of the week that will drive Sterling/Euro rates. Elsewhere, the US has jobs data and New Zealand releases Retail Sales.
Friday 9th May 2014 – Europe fires the first shots today with German Import and Export data at 7am. The UK returns fire with our Trade Balance numbers a few hours later, and Industrial and manufacturing numbers are released at the same time. So, lots from the UK today that will give an idea how the UK economy is performing, so expect a choppy day for the Pound. At 3pm the latest UK GDP estimate is the last major release of the week, but will be watched with keen interest.
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