Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast Oct Nov Dec 2009

Good Morning. Today we’ll look at last weeks events and how these affect exchange rates. A look at our Director of Foreign Exchange giving his views on the currency markets on CNBC, and as usual on a Monday, a full breakdown of the weeks data and possible effects on the currency markets. So to kick off, lets watch our recent slot on CNBC. If you cant see the video, watch it on YouTube here.

At 09:00am this morning, rates are as follows:

  • GBP/EUR 1.0834
  • GBP/USD 1.6296
  • GBP/AUD 1.7619
  • GBP/NZD 2.1581
  • GBP/CAD 1.7164
  • GBP/CHF 1.6402
  • GBP/ZAR 12.179
  • EUR/USD 1.5036

Last week, the pound made some gains after the Bank of England released their minutes. These showed a positive outlook for the UK economy, and they said that further Quantitative Easing is on hold for the time being. The pound rose on the back of this news, and we saw good exchange rates. This BBC article published on the day, shows how the pound soared on the news.

It was not to last however, as Fridays GDP figures confirmed we are now in the longest recession since records began over 50 years ago. We are now one of the only countries still in recession, and the news means we are likely to see more QE from the BoE. This in turn has caused lots of Sterling weakness, as the UK economy is performing so badly, and this is what caused rates to tumble.

It is the first time UK gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955. The pound fell sharply after the figures were released, reflecting the fact that many observers had expected the UK to have grown during the quarter.

The Prime Minister has said that the economy will return to growth by the turn of the year, in his first reaction to news that the UK is still in recession. Read about his comments here.

This Weeks Data
Last week demonstrated how data releases can dramtically affect exchange rates, and cause your currency purchase to be much more expensive than necessary. The better than expected Retail Saels Data caused the pound to rise, along with a bullish view of UK recovery by the Bank of England. Last week also showed how short lived spikes like this can be, with the poor GDP figures on Friday causing Sterling to fall across the board.

This week for the UK we have various house price measures that will indicate current movements in the housing market, and that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK’s economy so can affect the value of the pound.

For the EU, we have unemployment data on Friday, which is a leading indicator for the European Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the European lobar market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the European economy and thus the Euro. There is also Consumer Sentiment & Business Climate data from Europe.

From the United States, Thursday sees Gross Domestic Product & Personal Consumption data.

Elsewhere we have Business Confidence and an interest rate decision for New Zealand. There is an interest rate decision in Japan, and Consumer Price Index from Australia.

For more information on how these data releases can affect your curreny requirement, contact us today for a free consultation.

Monday
UK – Hometrack Housing Survey
US – Manufacturing
Aus – Producer Price Index
Ger – Consumer Confidence

Tuesday
US – Consumer Confidence
Jap – Retail Sales
UK – CBI Survey

Wednesday
Aus – Consumer Price Index
NZ – Business Confidence
NZ – Interest Rate Decision
Ger – Consumer Price Index
US – New Home Sales

Thursday
Ger – Import Prices
US – Gross Domestic Product
US – Personal Consumption
EU – Consumer Sentiment
EU – Business Climate
US – Jobless Claims

Friday
EU – Unemployment
UK – GfK Survey
UK – Nationwide House Prices
US – Employment
Jap – Interest Rate Decision
Ger – Retail Sales

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