Sterling Euro Exchange Rate Outlook August 2009

Last Weeks Trading
Very interesting week last week, with the pound surging against the USD, EUR and most other major currencies. The rise can be mainly attributed to better than expected house price data, which helped push GBP/EUR to 1 month highs. It may have even gone higher, but the pound was pulled back slightly after Fitch ratings agency confirmed its ‘AAA’ rating with a stable outlook on the UK and warned on UK’s high levels of debt.

Market Snapshot @ 08:30am

  • GBPEUR 1.1768
  • GBPUSD 1.6735
  • GBPAUD 2.0010
  • GBPNZD 2.5218

UK Debt

Fitch said Britain “faces one of the most serious post-crisis fiscal adjustment challenges among ‘AAA’ governments” and warned fiscal policy needs to be more aggressive in aiming to bring down the deficit.”The Fitch statement focused attention on the deteriorating UK fiscal situation,” BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard said.

However, investors took some encouragement from the latest GfK/NOP survey showing UK consumer confidence held steady in July, with Britons taking a more upbeat view of the economy as a whole.

This Weeks Data

This week, we have an extremely busy one in terms of data releases. it’s also a very important one for any client with an imminent need to convert currency…

For the UK we have house price information, GDP Estimates, Consumer Confidence, and of course the Bank of England Interest Rate decision. Watch these releases closely, as we may well see Sterlings current strength come to an end. If the BoE make any further announcements with regards to Quantitative Easing, then expect the pound to suffer. If they decide to shelve the asset buying scheme, then the markets may look on this positively.

Sterling could go either way, so in order you maximise your exchange rate and dont be caught out of rates move suddenly, then contact us to discuss Stop Loss and Limit Orders.

For the EU we also have an interest rate announcement, and also various inflationary measures. Also watch for Retail Sales which gives an indication of consumer confidence.

For the US we have expenditure information, confidence data, Jobless info, and Output measures. Watch these closely, as even if your requirement is for AUD or EUR for example, US economic information is very important, as it is this that drives risk sentiment – if US data is good, and investors feel confident and are happy to take a risk, then currencies like GBP and AUD can benefit, and vice versa.

Summary

This will be a very important week for the currency markets, with some important data releases and announcements. If you have a requirement, then let the experts guide you through the sometimes complex world of foreign exchange. We have various tools available to help you get the best rates from the market – dont just leave it to chance and blind hope that rates will move your way! Get in touch for a free consultation on how we can help.

Monday
Ger – Retail Sales
Ger – Purchasing Managers Index
UK – Halifax House Prices
EU – Purchasing Managers Index
US – Construction Spending

Tuesday
Aus – House Price Index
Aus – RBA Interest Rate Decision
NZ – Commodity Prices
EU – Producer Price Index
US – Personal Income
US – Consumption Expenditure
UK – BRC Shop Price Index
UK – Nationwide Consumer Confidence

Wednesday
UK – Services PMI
UK – Industrial and Manufacturing Production
EU – Retail Sales
EU – Services PMI
US – Factory Orders
US – Energy Stocks

Thursday
UK – GDP Estimate
UK – Interest Rate Decision
US – Jobless Claims

Friday
UK – Producer Price Index
UK – Input and Output
Ger – Industrial Production
US – Payrolls & Unemployment
US – Consumer Credit

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